Posted by A. Makuer on November 25, 2004, 22:00:26, in reply to "Re: Stop Criticizing, Ask Yourself Who Is Salva Kiir???"

Dear All,

The following is another piece of information with regard to the current situation in the movement:

Sudanese sources predict split in rebel SPLM

NAIROBI, Nov 24, 2004 (Al-Sharq al-Awsat) -- There were contradicting reports yesterday about a sharp split in the Sudan People`s Liberation Movement (SPLM). The reports ranged between confirmation and denial. SPLM leader Dr John Garang emphatically denied the rumours that have been circulating for weeks about differences between him and his first deputy, Salva Kiir Mayardit, which reportedly reached the point of a split.

However, southern Sudanese sources told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that a split has become "inevitable, and Salva Kiir will confirm it officially at a news conference with journalists from all over the world".

In a written message to the commanders and bases of the Sudan People`s Liberation Army, Garang assured them that Salva Kiir was still in the movement, and the reports that he had split from it were untrue. Southern Sudanese sources told Al-Sharq al-Awsat the day before yesterday that the dispute between Garang and his deputy has reached the point of "no return" and that Salva Kiir was preparing to announce the "removal of Garang from the leadership of the Movement within hours". The sources added yesterday that Salva Kiir and his group mocked the calming messages sent by Garang and noted that the announcement of the split was only a few days away. The sources explained that Salva Kiir would hold a news conference at his headquarters in Abyei (southern Sudan) soon to announce the reasons that prompted him to remove Garang. They said that the Bahr al-Ghazal group, led by Salva Kiir, had asked for logistical support from Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to confront the Garang forces. However, Museveni refused. They explained that Salva Kiir commands the majority in the field and can resolve the matter and remove Garang.

The SPLM leader denied this story. In a speech (a copy of which was received by Al-Sharq al-Awsat), he said: "Salva Kiir is one of the founders of the Movement and one of its main pillars. Salva Kiir did not join the major split that took place in the Movement in 1991, but fought for the unity of the Movement."

In his speech to his forces, Garang continued: "Now they are targeting the unity of the Movement... Such rumours are coming from the enemies, particularly as we are approaching peace."

While SPLM sources yesterday accused Khartoum of being behind the rumours about a split, informed government sources in Khartoum denied any involvement in this matter. However, they told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the security services have been closely watching and monitoring the escalating differences in the SPLM. They believed that according to the estimates of the security services, these differences have now reached the point of semi-rebellion against Garang in several areas under his control.

The sources denied any government connection with the dispute in the SPLM, which they said began during the time of the signing of the security arrangements agreement in the middle of last year. They said the struggle within the SPLM was an internal affair which "the government is aware of, but has absolutely nothing to do with". The sources stressed that the government was extremely keen to advance the peace process, which has reached its final stages, with the SPLM, with which it began the process from the beginning. The sources wondered: "If the government wants to split the Movement into tribes and factions, with whom will it implement the existing agreement and with whom will it reach the end of the line in the peace process?" The sources added: "If, in the end, internal changes took place in the Movement, this would be its own affair, and not all the things a person wishes for can he get."

The government sources, which asked not to be named, affirmed: "If the dispute within the SPLM continues to escalate at the current monitored rate, it will undoubtedly have a negative effect on the peace process. If it is not resolved, it will affect the implementation of the agreements reached between the two sides in the Nifasha rounds of negotiations, which have been going on for almost two years."

The sources said Garang is now in a real predicament, although he tried in successive statements recently to belittle the effects of the conflict in his Movement. They noted that Garang would make every effort to conclude the peace process as soon as possible so he will not be consumed by the conflict before he reaches this goal.

Reports are circulating in Khartoum these days about sharp disagreements in the SPLM, which reached their peak last week. Unofficial reports say that a general rebellion exists in the ranks of the SPLM, but this rebellion is more apparent among SPLM members in Bahr al-Ghazal and Al-Istiwa`iyah. Reports in Khartoum say: "The disagreements broke out not because of the arrangements for the peace process and the feeling of the people of these areas that they will gain nothing from this peace deal" but because of earlier transfers and dismissals carried out by the leader of the Movement, which coincided with the progress made in the peace process. Middle-ranking commanders affected by this move regarded it as an early termination of their services in the Movement, so they "rebelled and mutinied", according to the reports. The reports say that tension last week reached a point that forced the SPLM authorities to close the Rumbek Airport and restrict the movement of the people in the town.

According to these reports, Commander Isaac Mamor, the most prominent SPLM commander in the Al-Istiwa`iyah (Equator), is leading the rebellion among the people of Al-Istiwa`iyah. He is justifying his rebellion, according to the reports, by the decision of the SPLM to carry out transfers among the middle-ranking field commanders, which were arbitrary and hurt the people of Al-Istiwa`iyah. Therefore, he decided to confront the neo-imperialism, in a reference to Garang`s policies in the coming period. The reports link the rebellion of the Al-Istiwa`iyah members against Garang with a strongly worded statement issued by a group of SPLM members in Al-Istiwa`iyah the month before last entitled "A final warning". The statement talked about the injustice felt by the Al-Istiwa`iyah members in the SPLM in recent years. The reports say that Commander Salva Kiir, the first deputy to Garang, known as the strong man in the Movement, is leading the rebellion in Bahr al-Ghazal. Commander Paul Malunik Awan, Commander Majak Akwat and Commander Pior Ajank Dor are supporting him in this move.

The reports say that Garang is currently busy sending guidance to his field commanders in which he is trying to deny the existence of new disagreements in his Movement. They said that Salva Kiir, with a large number of field commanders, is in control of several positions. He issued instructions to his supporters to open fire at any aircraft that flies over the area without the permission of his group.

The reports also said that Salva Kiir asked Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to provide him with forces to attack Garang`s forces, but Museveni refused. The reports say that Salva Kiir has publicly attacked Garang and accused him of making decisions alone, articulating visions and strategies, and controlling the money and policies in a way that did not give a chance to others to express their own opinion. He also accused Garang, saying that the concessions he made in the negotiations could rekindle the problem in the south and not solve it with the other partner (the government). Salva Kiir thinks that Garang has begun to target middle-ranking and high-ranking commanders, which means he is repeating the scenario he used with some of his commanders, including Martin Magir, Joseph Adohu and William Nun.

The reports say that Garang`s traditional opponents among southern politicians like Bona Malul, Francis Denik, Aldo Ajo Denik and Justine Yak are adding fuel to the fire of the escalating conflict in the SPLM. They are using their influence and relationships, which they created over the past four or five decades, with the international community and its organizations, which, at a certain period, served as a bridge for Garang himself. The Western world has a definite desire to achieve peace and urge all the parties to move towards it without hesitation or deviation. The reports predict that if the situation reached the point of armed confrontation between Garang and the new rebels, particularly Salva Kiir, the final round will be in favour of Salva Kiir, who commands the majority of forces on the ground, including mechanized units, communication equipment, civil authority structures and relief centres. Garang is left only with his legitimacy status and some students of the new generation who rose up because of him.

Material from the BBC Monitoring Service.