The consequences of defections and the future of South
South Sudan is on the brink of being declared an independent state after its nationals opted to secede from the north in a self-determination referendum held in January this year.
But as the independent is forthcoming in July, the would-be Africas 54th nation is being shaken by insecurity caused by elements perceived as close allies to the Souths archenemy, the north.
"The government in Khartoum is behind all these uprisings and skirmishes in the south. They are the ones financing and arming all these activities through militia", Bol Makueng, the SPLM Secretary for information, culture and communications, told reporters recently.
Several rebellions against the Government of Southern Sudan were launched in the aftermath of April 2010 general elections, notably the George Athor notorious militias and Gatluak Gais insurgents. However, bizarre defections have been seen in recent weeks including the indistinct defection of Maj. General Peter Gadet and veteran politician Abdel Bagi Ayii Akol to the insurgents side.
While Gadet has not publicly justified his rebellion against the government, Ayii Akol revealed that Muslims in Southern Sudan were being subjected to unprecedented discrimination and therefore, he rebelled to fight for the inclusion of Muslims in decision-making positions in Southern Sudan.
The outspoken veteran also said that he needs Muslims to be given 30 percent of the seats in the government, a move that may well trim down the popularity of the government if it does include the element of religion in the system.
The Government of Southern Sudan recognizes the right of Muslims to worship, but that does not mean that we mix religion with politics A senior government official said on Wednesday on condition of anonymity.
A 2005 peace deal that ended more than two decades of civil war between the south and the north allows the south to establish a secular-based system and the predominantly Muslim north embraces Sharia law.
The introduction of Sharia law in the past by former President Jafaar Numeiry in early 1980s was one of the reasons that led to eruption of second civil war in the Sudan.
The policy of the SPLM is very clear to everybody where we adopted a secular system in which religion is separate from state. Official said.
Analysts fear that unless the SPLM avoids the inclusion of political Islam into the system, South Sudan would be in chaos, one observer said.
The unfortunate and unnecessary rebellions have caused South Sudan a lot of resources, both human and assets. Since their shock inceptions last year, hundreds of lives have been lost and properties worth millions of United States dollars disappeared.
Around sixteen thousands people fled their homes since the violent began in June 2010, construction of roads and bridges is held back in areas near rebel zones and stability in Southern Sudan is at stake.
In a single operations in February this year, rebel forces loyal to George Athor attacked the Jonglei States County of Fangak killing over 200 people mostly women and children. The civilians who were brutally and ruthlessly killed by Athor and his cohorts were buried in mass grave.
Figting is not good, it takes the lives of people, it destroy infrastructures--grievances among South Sudanese should be settled through a peaceful dialogue Daniel Koat Mathews, a former governor of Upper Nile region and currently a member of political parties council representing the SPLM told the Citizen on Wednesday last week.
The Government of Southern Sudan has repeatedly said that the rebellions in the south were sponsored by Khartoum government with intention of overthrowing it; and therefore, installed a puppet regime that will fall under their control as they bid to reunite the two regions after secession vote.
Peace and CPA Implementation Minister Pagan Amum said that Khartoum was arming, training and organizing various militia groups in the south to destabilize security in the region a head of the official declaration of the independent in early July. But Khartoum has dismissed the allegation as baseless and unfounded.
While it was difficult to independently verify the SPLM accusation against the NCP this time around, some allegations in the past labeled against the NCP by its junior partner, the SPLM turned out to be true. The lack of transparency in the oil management sector which had been brought up by the SPLM several times was substantiated by Global Witness that Khartoum was by far cheating the South.
"The National Congress Party has shifted strategies aimed at keeping Sudan united to internal rebellions. They are the ones supporting all these internal rebellion in Jonglei, Unity and more recently fighting which broke out in Malakal town, capital of Upper Nile State. Bol Makueng, the Information Secretary said.
All these are tactics from the National Congress Party meant to show the world that South Sudanese are not capable of managing their own affairs through disgruntled individuals in the south"
But South Sudan opposition parties blame the rising insecurity solely on the ruling party. The SPLM has failed to embrace multi-party democracy and therefore, caused discontent among the population in the south James Mabor Gatkuoth, the leader of National Democratic Front, NDF said. Gatkuoth said that the unwillingness of the SPLM to form a broad-based government is demonstrated by its recent refusal to address the demands of opposition parties after they withdrew from constitutional review committee.
But John Luk Jok, the Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional Development and the Chairman of the Constitutional Review Committee said that the south will embark on broad-based constitutional review process after independent.
We shall embark on a broad-based constitutional review process after the July independence declaration. This process will involve the active participation of all stakeholders including other political parties, the minister said, adding that, there is no cause for alarm. What we are doing is in the interest of all the people of South Sudan.
His remarks come almost a month after the review process suffered a serious setback, following a boycott from nine members of the 11 political parties on the technical committee. Those who withdrew accused the SPLM member violating the procedures that had been established for the review. The SPLM has 41 members on the committee.
The most important thing is to gain our independence first Daniel Koat Mathews said. If there is a problem between two people and they cannot resolve it, they should turn to a third party rather than diverting into conflict
Daniel, a former minister in the central government was quick to advise that turning to Khartoum for help at a very critical time like this was a grave mistake from the rebel commanders.
He said that it was time for the United Nations, African Union and IGAD to come and mediate peace between Southern Sudanese. But it remains to be seen whether the hard headed rebel leaders will accept to talk with the government.
It is important to recall that the SPLA had negotiated and signed a ceasefire agreement with renegade general George Athor faction last year. But the deserters commander allegedly violated the terms of that agreement few weeks later after he reportedly attacked SPLA positions.
After those aggressions, the SPLA forces have done what they can to root out the insurgents in the south before the declaration of independent. Athor was reportedly forced out of his Payakyak hideout last month by the SPLA forces and his whereabouts allegedly remained anonymous until now.
Although President Salva Kiir Mayardit in the run-up to the referendum issued an executive pardon to the rebels if they unconditionally lay down their arms, Most of the dissident officers with exception of Gabriel Tanginye for a short period, infamously decided to stay away. A report by London School of Economics published last year suggested that threat of violence was imminent unless the SPLA is determined to deal with the rebellion properly. "Aside from the threat of violence these rebellions pose, what is perhaps most alarming is that the southern government... and the SPLA itself, have proved incapable of resolving them, either politically or militarily." The report read in part.
Southern officials often say the north is not interested in any way to let the South go because an estimated 60 percent of the national income will go with the South and therefore, leaving the north in a volatile state of economy.
"They do not need the south to go. They have tried it several times including attempts to buy votes from South Sudanese during referendum without success .They unsuccessfully tried it but still they did not give it up completely. They are trying day and night" Bol Makueng said.
The report also said that Lt-Gen George Athor, the defeated opposition party candidate David Yauyau in Jonglei and Galwak Gai in Unity - have expressed their discontent with the Juba-based government and with the political leadership in their own states in particular through militancy,"
